- The question
- Is entropy maximisation an engine that drives a system forward, or a knob that sets where it settles?
- The instrument
- A pre-registered horizon-knob test across four campaigns (v4.0–v4.3), each committing in advance to what result would falsify the prior version.
- The finding
- A knob, not an engine. The τ-knob is real. The geometry-scaling prediction — the part that would have made it an engine — failed. An apparent short-horizon kinetic separation survived audit and then dissolved under matched-estimator control: finite-sample estimator roughness, not physics.
- What failed
- The original thesis. This is the instrument's whole value — the intuition was strong, pre-registered, tested, and wrong, and the correction is published under its own DOI rather than folded quietly into a later version.
- Standing
- StudyClosed · v4.3Bounded null
Study
Entropy as a Tunable Equilibrium
A falsifiable horizon-knob test of the causal entropic force — and the prediction that broke.
StudyClosed · v4.3Bounded null
τ-knob real · geometry-scaling prediction failed
Metrics with scope
Every number names what was measured, on what sample, and as of when.
Campaigns
4 pre-registered
v4.0–v4.3, each with a stated falsifier before running
As of 2026-07-10 · source
Kinetic separation
Dissolved under control
Matched-estimator control; effect attributed to estimator roughness
As of 2026-07-10
From wonder to receipt
Entropy as a Tunable Equilibrium
Wonder initiated the search. Rigor changed the answer.
StudyClosed · v4.3Bounded null
- 01Wonder
If the universe tends toward more available futures, is that tendency itself the thing that moves matter?
- 02Hypothesis
If causal entropic forcing is an engine, its effect should scale with the geometry of the state space in a specific, pre-registered way.
- 03Instrument
Four pre-registered campaigns with a τ horizon knob, each declaring in advance the result that would falsify it.
- 04Encounter
The knob was real. The geometry-scaling prediction failed. The short-horizon kinetic separation that looked like a second win dissolved under matched-estimator control.
- 05Standing
Bounded null. Entropy is a tunable equilibrium, not a prime mover — stated as the finding, not buried as a limitation.
- 06Receipt
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21223845 · follow-up 10.5281/zenodo.21288848